Revolution Trends

Libyan government forces were taking back cities and looked like they were going to take (or try to take) Benghazi.

Bahrain declared a three month state of emergency. Banned protests. Got Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to send in 1000 soldiers. Cleared Pearl Square injuring and killing people. Even took down the statue in Pearl Square!

Today Yemen government snipers killed around 40 people - as many people as have died within the past month in Yemen.

Intrade has added markets on King Abdullah (Saudi Arabia), a Libyan No Fly Zone, and the prime minister of Iraq.

On Intrade, Gadaffi is doing much better than he was a week ago (was at a high of 90% chance of losing office, now down to 55%). Sounds like he is gaining ground militarily.

...

I think Libya is at a crossroads.

Wikipedia has the number of estimated deaths at 6000-10,000 which makes Libya's uprising SIXTY times more bloody (deaths per milliion) than Tunisia (http://www.revolutiontrends.org/Protests_vs_Deaths) or any other country (so far).

Possible options
1) Government defeats rebels
2) Rebels defeat government
3) Stalemate
4) Government militarily defeats rebels, but a nonviolent movement beats the government